| A Study on Cost Risk Estimation applying Joint Cost-Schedule Probability Distribution Model |
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Dong-Kyu Kim, Sung-Jin Kang, Gyu-Sik Han |
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Korea National Defense University |
| 비용과 일정의 결합확률 분포를 적용한 위험비용추정에 관한 연구 |
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김동규, 강성진, 한규식 |
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국방대학교 |
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| Abstract |
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The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies. |
| Key Words:
Joint Cost-Schedule Probability Distribution, Cost Risk, Success Probability, Risk Analysis |
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