| Functional Reliability Estimation of Pin Pullers Based on a Probit Model |
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Byeong Min Mun, Chinuk Lee, Nam-ho Kim, Chang-Sun Choi, Zaeill Kim, Suk Joo Bae |
1Department of Industrial Engineering, Hanyang University
2Department of Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida
3The 4th Research and Development Institute, Agency for Defense Development |
| 프로빗 모델 기반 핀풀러의 작동 신뢰도 추정 |
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문병민, 이진욱, 김남호, 최창선, 김재일, 배석주 |
1한양대학교 산업공학과
2플로리다대학교 기계항공우주공학과
3국방과학연구소 제4기술연구본부 |
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| Abstract |
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To generate mechanical movements in one-shot devices such as missiles and space launch vehicles, pyrotechnic mechanical device(PMD) such as pin pullers using pyrotechnic charge has been widely used. Reliability prediction of pin pullers is crucial to successfully execute target missions for the one-shot devices. Because the pin pullers require destructive tests to evaluate their reliability, one would need about 3,000 samples of success to guarantee a reliability of 99.9 % with a confidence level of 95 %. This paper suggests the application of a probit model using the charge amount as a functional parameter for estimation of functional reliability of pin puller. To guarantee target reliability, we propose estimation methods of the lower bound of functional reliability by applying the probit model. Given lower bound of functional reliability, we quantitatively show that the optimum amount of charge increases as the number of samples decreases. Along with a variety of simulations the validity of our new model via real test results is confirmed. |
| Key Words:
Delta Method, Functional Reliability, Method of Maximum Likelihood, Probit Model, Pyrotechnic Mechanical Device(PMD) |
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