Comparison of Reliability Estimation Methods for Ammunition Systems with Quantal-response Data

Ryu, Jang-Hee; Back, Seung-Jun; Son, Young-Kap

Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology 2010;13(6):982-989.

Jang-Hee Ryu, Seung-Jun Back, Young-Kap Son

Andong National University

가부반응 데이터 특성을 가지는 탄약 체계의 신뢰도 추정방법 비교

류장희, 백승준, 손영갑

안동대학교

Abstract

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems such as ammunitions. Quantal-response data, following a binomial distribution at each sampling time, characterizes lifetimes of one-shot systems. Various quantal-response data of different sample sizes are simulated using lifetime data randomly sampled from assumed weibull distributions with different shape parameters but the identical scale parameter in this paper. Then, reliability estimation methods in open literature are applied to the simulated quantal-response data to estimate true reliability over time. Rankings in estimation accuracy for different sample sizes are determined using t-test of SSE. Furthermore, MSE at each time, including both bias and variance of estimated reliability metrics for each method are analyzed to investigate how much both bias and variance contribute the SSE. From the MSE analysis, MSE provides reliability estimation trend for each method. Parametric estimation method provides more accurate reliability estimation results than the other methods for most of sample sizes.

Key Words: One-shot System, Quantal-response Data, SSE, MSE, Reliability Estimation, ASRP